US & India: Has the love affair turned Sour?

Donald Trump just did a Thanos and helped assemble an unlikely alliance of the great civilizational powers of the East in China and India duly joined in by Russia which threatens to shake the world order. India and the US were always a natural partner despite animosities in the past which involves the infamous Nixon era. US is bound to ply by its interests and in an unseeming move to cow down its great rival China by trying to protype the great Tariff experiment with India, Mr. Trump has just blown the Lab experiment. Trump and Modi shared a great camaraderie up until now which seems to stand on shaky grounds with the latter not taking calls from the former as reported in the press after the June 17 call in the sidelines of the G7 summit. Trump also enjoys popularity in India primarily because of his no holds barred approach on issues like illegal immigration, terrorism & especially taking on the liberals and woke crusaders head on. Unfortunately, as the question of national interest arises, this is bound to make some of the same supporters angry who are at forefront and raising slogans again the US president and also threats of boycotting America Goods, which at this time seems bit farfetched, yet the bitter emotions have been sown. It will be interesting to see who will roll down first as US with Trump at helm won't give in that easily & will try to push its EU counterparts to apply pressure on the "RIC" bloc and primarily India. With Pakistan ready for subservience, US may use its traditional wartime lapdog useful to exert pressure on India primarily in matters related to Security, River sharing agreements, investments in defense where India would be keen to get US support. Also, with Pakistan reliant on Chinese equipment's and with seeming thawing Sino-Indian relations, it would be interesting to see how Pakistan will manage dual lip service at the same time. It would also be interesting to see how US plays the Bangladesh card which went through a violent shake up last year where US may have influenced the regime change. With China also seeking interest in Bangladesh, India may have chosen the right moment to warm its relations with China on key selective strategic aspects despite the recent and past tensions on the border. But all in all, as experts have pointed out, it's all up to Donal Trump. As Shyam Saran mentioned in a recent podcast, Mr. Trump seems to have a macro level chess moves already planned & it's only he who knows what the next move will be. Abhijit Iyer Mitra also put a significant point, which is, Trump has nothings to lose. Had this been his first term he might still be a little circumspect of some of the decisions. Even if MAGA movement carries on after 2029, it won't have its progenitor. Unless off course Mr. Trump pull up an unlikely trick out of his hat, to still influence the oval office post 2029.

समय महान है

विजय लक्ष्य प्राप्ति
की ललक में
बन रहा शैलीन चरित्र का त्यागी
चाल-चलन हैं विद्रोह के
जैसे बीहड़ के बेताब बाग़ी

तीव्र हो रहा तेरा अभ्यास
ज्वाला की गर्जना
को धारण कर
सोच हो रही ऐसे प्रज्वल
जैसे रक्त में बहुबाँटी
बहे जल प्रपात-सा वेग

टप टप परिश्रम कर इस अनल में
उमड़ उठे ग्रीष्म काल में मेघ

पर संसार का संरक्षक
यही कहे
कि शीघ्रता में करके विलीन्
सफलता न हो समीप

ना बन कठोर अपने आप से
नम्र होने दे दोनों नयन
बूंद-बूंद को पीर कर,
पीछे रखे पद चिह्न को देख
पाए अनुभव को कर ग्रहण

होती है तेरी वृद्धि तब भी
आता प्रयास के अंत में विराम जब भी
पतन के पथ में बस रह जाता है अभिमान
विफलता से न होता कोई अपमान

करता रहे जतन धीरे-धीरे
क्योंकि व्यक्ति को बनाता है समय महान!

T and lessons from Mahabharata

Mr. T has a big ego, so did Shishupala who felt he could incessantly insult his cousin Krishna, without realizing that even the manifestation of the Supreme Preserver has set limits to patience. T also feels that US with him at helm is all pervasive, no power can shake him. He prides on the fact the US possess indestructible weapons which can wreak unforgivable havoc on its enemies. So was Bhasmasura endowed with the boon, by the Lord of Destruction, wherein anything he touched gets burnt and destroyed, which also boomeranged on the mighty Lord himself, only to be saved by a sensual manifestation of the supreme preserver.

This is not to imply that PM of India or other world leaders who Mr. T has rubbed the wrong way, may necessarily be the final deliverer of justice. It is to show the world that the path taken by President of US with regard to his reckless tariff measures or his bizarre claim as being messiahs of peace, repeated chest thumping of stopping wars world over including Operation Sindoor  is bound to have consequences to the one who thinks he is all haughty and almighty.

The modern-day Krishna or Mohini will not manifest immediately. The consequences have started germinating the day when absolute craziness was unleashed and set into motion. Krishna in the form of some world leaders or leaders within the US or even within the electorate of the US, is waiting with patience for Shishupala to commit his 101st misstep or the ones Mr. President thinks are his allies or cronies within his government may actually be a Mohini in disguise. It's important for Mr. T to get down the path he has taken or else it's going to be a cause for his own damnation.

Sentiments of the Masses

 Indian judiciary is becoming a mockery. While pronouncing the judgement on Kamal Hassan's "Kannada is derived from Tamil" remark, judge mentioned to lawyer that he won't accept any apologies from Mr. Hassan as he has hurt the sentiment of the Masses. This is absurd and unqualified statement. Now the question to be asked to judge is - " Who defines a mass"," What is the definition of sentiments here", " what is the level of hurt on those sentiments". Such anecdotal and loose statements are a cause for worry.

Commentary by ChatGPT

Here’s a balanced and constructive commentary on your statement, maintaining the spirit of your concern while enhancing clarity and professionalism:

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Commentary:

The recent remarks by a judge while adjudicating Kamal Haasan’s case — particularly the refusal to accept an apology on the grounds that he has "hurt the sentiments of the masses" — raise important questions about the role of the judiciary in a democratic society. The statement, as reported, is concerning not because of the legal outcome per se, but due to the subjective language used in the courtroom.

In a legal system grounded in objectivity and evidence, phrases like “sentiments of the masses” must be carefully qualified. Who exactly constitutes the “masses”? How are “sentiments” defined and measured? What is the threshold for determining that those sentiments have been "hurt"? Without such clarity, judicial commentary risks drifting into anecdotal generalization, which could erode public confidence in the impartiality of the bench.

While courts do have a role in balancing freedom of speech with public order, that balance must be achieved through precise legal reasoning — not rhetorical or emotive pronouncements. Loose or sweeping statements, especially in high-profile matters, can set concerning precedents and contribute to the perception that the judiciary is increasingly politicized or populist.

It is essential for the judiciary to uphold constitutional values, including free expression, while also being mindful of public sensitivities. But that balance must rest on clearly articulated legal standards, not vague references to mass emotions.

Why IR

As an aficionado of World History, I have always been interested in Wars & Conflicts and its impact on changing world order. Today, in the 2020s, we are in a much more hyper connected times inundated with volume of information's on major crisis happening in the world with wide raging commentary from across the board which might enhance but also confuse one's judgment and opinion. The Russian-Ukraine conflict which started in 2022 was a full-blown conflict not only between two major countries but also between prominent blocks in the world after the era of Cold War. It ushered in a period of misinformation war, modern warfare and questioning of moral standing of countries based on the sides they took. 

While the Russian Ukraine war is an event where major countries engaged in direct warfare, the incident of October 7th, 2023, where altogether different. A powerful modern nation spearheading the security, defense & technology arena of the world was forced to the ground by its non-state adversary. Despite knowing the backdrop and history associated with the Gaza conflict, it made me observe the geo-politics more keenly. It also influenced me to build a deeper outlook to understand the drivers, strategic behaviors, and power equation in the geo-political arena. I had long term ambition to pursue a pathway in my area of Interest which involves World History, and I feel this event enabled the trigger in me to further zoom into my goal of seeking a career in International Relations & Strategic consultancy and pursue the MA in IRSS to build the necessary muscle. Being from engineering & analytics background, I am also keen to explore my skills with respect to pattern analysis, root cause identification & correlations to see if the same thought process can be applied in an international situation i.e. whether an event in one part of the world holds traces which might transpire somewhere else. For example, how the impact of such conflicts can play out in a country like India across different spheres – which may be economic, diplomatic, or even social-religious. Through this program coupled with my background, my idea will be to develop a sharper framework to analyze global events and its downstream impact on nation like ours.

 The Israel Gaza war is witnessing a large-scale destruction. Hamas’s infrastructure continues to be dismantled at a rapid pace but at cost of massive collateral damage to the civilians. Besides the intelligence failure of the highly renowned & feared ‘Mossad’, the massive information war that eventually took precedence and altered the narrative in this conflict was also intriguing. It led me wondering, if there could have been a justified response to destroy Hamas by Israel without high civilian impact. With the current massive Humanitarian crisis unfolding, the questions also point out to US, UN including NATO-European bloc & whether they could have intervened timely to avoid the conflict spiraling which has now affected millions of innocent Palestinian civilians. The countries of OIC and the Arab States in the region have been condemning Israel, without questioning the initial provocations by Hamas or constructively getting involved in rehabilitating the affected Palestinians citizens. It is important to note the role of Technology, AI and deepfake as lot of misinformation is getting precedence which is muddling genuine reporting from both sides of the conflict. This is further driving social & religious polarization across the world.

 The scale of war has expanded beyond Israel’s periphery to Yemen and Iran. The threat posed by the Houthis drone attacks on Israel and the Red Sea poses serious economic repercussions, especially for the countries in the Indian Ocean region like India, with concerns of major supply routes being impacted which travel via the Suez Canal which can further have downstream effect on oil prices & trade imbalances. The conflict has already put an indefinite halt on the India Middle East European economic corridor (IMEC) which was formulated during the G20 summit in India in mid-2023 and would have been a game changer for the Indian economy. 

In this context, The MA in IRSS program will be essential for me to understand the underlying complex dynamics about the key events happening in the World including conventional and unconventional conflicts, understanding evolving role of strategic narratives and explore how shared History of trade and culture, beyond transactional diplomacy, can be applied in international strategies to seek common ground. As an Indian, I feel it is important to comprehend that how a country like ours which is a leader of the Global South, can take a middle path by balancing its national & economic interest with humanitarian concerns and strategic alignment. 

My interests also include Maritime policy, which is important for India’s trade security in conflict ridden regions & sea routes, the evolving ecosystem of Défense Weaponry with advent of drone warfare including advanced air defense systems which have been used in recent conflicts, AI based surveillance and Surgical operations. The use of modern technology like AI to effectively filter & nullify spurious information and making strategic communication and narratives more coherent would also be a fascinating study.

 I believe the blend of theory and practical frameworks offered as part of the program will help me transform from a keen follower of Geopolitics and World history to a Practitioner in the field. I aspire to emerge from the program with analytical depth and strategic knowhow necessary to contribute meaningfully in to international think tanks, policy consultancies or global organizations working at intersection of diplomacy, defense, and economic strategy. 

The Past is Coming Near- Near Real time

 AI is enabling amazing content which is making the past coming closer to present and that too in near real time. No wonder the generations of today are able to not only hear but also visualize the past history using AI which leaves a greater imprint and further levelling the knowledge asymmetry.

Endless Constraints

 A quip during a call today with my sibling where I came across a profound statement made by a foreigner working with her, seemingly frustrated staring at the barricade on a railway crossing for almost half an hour. There are 10 problems an average Indian face in a day and to solve them you need 10 years more which unfortunately is not ordained, hence we resort to mediation. Right from facing traffic jams in the morning while commuting, power cuts at home, water issues there might number of issues. But then the foreigner may not realize it's part of the system. Comfort is good and desirable, but meditation is required to make peace with the ecosystem which will take its own sweet time to get sorted.