The Mecca delcaration

There was news for much to think about for the wider geopolitical community last week. A so called "Muslim NATO" took shape with joint declaration between the Saudis, Türkiye and Pakistanis. A clause which is important in the declaration is that which alludes to attack on any of the three is deemed to be attacked on all three - a reference to Article 5 of the NATO declaration. This has caused flurry of reactions primarily in the social network community about its repercussion in India and how it should counter it. Many of the so called (armchair) critics are already uttering failure laments on India's approach - while the official statement is about "Monitoring the developments".

Well for once if we just rewind back a year ago during Operation Sindhoor, it was Türkiye which was supplying drones to Pakistan, and hence technically it has already supported Pakistan when it was attacked. Saudi and Pakistan have had close contacts throughout their history with Pakistan relying on Saudi funds during times of war with India and also during the Nuclear related embargos - when it had to rely on discounted Saudi oil and supplies. "We don't need to when we already have Pakistan ", was the sly response not long ago, from de facto ruler MBS when asked about Saudi's Nuclear Plans. Pak had also provided troops and trained Saudi army for counter terrorism when the first Islamic anti-terrorist force was set up under General Rahil Sharif with headquarters in Saudi.  So effectively these three were already together in different circumstances. So, what happened now? Why the need for the declaration?

With the ongoing Iran conflict and US increasingly hard-pressed on negotiation terms with depleting weapon reserves to prolong the war, the middle east is looking for a regional security alignment. Also, with US focussing on consolidating the western hemisphere and higher alertness towards Asia-pacific with China in scope it wants its so-called partners to be self-reliant. Saudis are weary of this and are cognizant about threat emanating from likes of Houthi's in addition to an Iranian situation. Turkey, with its vocal criticisms about Israel also sees it as a threat once Israel is busy dismantling its existing neighbouring threats. Hence the missing piece in the puzzle became the armed forces which may be required to fight a hybrid war if need arises. And this is where Pakistan comes into the equation. A trisection of Saudi finance, Turkish drones and Pakistan's forces and weapons. So, the genesis of the pact are the Western Asia disturbances in light of the US's ambiguous stance in the region despite it being belligerent on Iran. 

For India, which won't mind attacking Pakistan again in case of any misadventures, it knows for real that Türkiye is not in its side and whatever actions which can happen may be in the economic front where India holds a trade surplus. Saudi will be the real deal for India though. Saudi relies on exports to India with India being the second largest trade partner with over 40 billion dollars in total with Saudi holding significant edge on trade surplus. Saudi also has huge expatriate population of Indians. During Operation Sindhoor, Saudi in fact engaged diplomatically with both the countries and urged to settle the conflict using peaceful means. Assuming there are further situations like Operation Sindhoor, India has to work out a policy focussing on the Saudi.

The biggest beneficiary will be Pakistan who will need funds to enhance its weapons stock with the latest Chinese developed inventory. And in a way it will also benefit China who will get a slice in the pie by selling its latest advanced weaponry to Pakistan who had been always short of funds. So, India has to monitor this development more closely and re assess it defence investments and policy accordingly. 

Still if one looks at the declaration, it knows way describes in what form or way the partis will support each other in case of attack. Like there is no specifics of a scenario where say India responds with a limited conflict or attack in Pakistan due to a terrorist attack vis a vis a conventional war. Overall, by design it looks like the declaration is for deterrence and counterbalancing the waning influence of the US in the region.